Course syllabus

Course-PM

BOM125 BOM125 Risk assessment and decision support lp3 VT24 (7.5 hp). The course is offered by the Department of Architecture and Civil Engineering.

The information presented below can also be found in the course PM and schedule (se module Course information).

Introduction

Welcome to this course on risk assessment and decision support in engineering! Infrastructure and environmental engineering projects are often associated with substantial risks of different kinds, which may lead to severe consequences for both society and problem owners. Examples are risks concerning drinking water supply, ground stability, accidents with hazardous goods and contamination problems. This course focuses on how to identify, evaluate, and design cost-effective and sustainable actions for controlling risks and to increase safety in geo and water engineering projects.

Aim

The aim of the course is to give you an advanced understanding of risk assessment and decision support in geo and water engineering. In doing so, the focus of the course is on the use of risk assessment methods and risk-based decision analysis tools for selecting cost-effective and sustainable actions for reducing and controlling risks.

Course content and structure

The course is structured around a set of initial lectures, and a project assignment will give you a deeper understanding of how to apply risk assessment and decision analysis tools to real-world problems. You will gain practical experience with tools like logic tree analysis, Monte Carlo simulations, cost-benefit analysis (CBA), and multi-criteria analysis (MCA). You will learn how to use these methods for identifying cost-effective and sustainable alternatives for reducing and controlling risks.

During the first three weeks, the course gives an overview of risk assessment tools and introduces specific decision analysis tools for evaluation mitigation measures. Parallel to the lectures, the project assignment will start, and computer-based exercises and other activities are scheduled to develop risk models and evaluate possible measures.

In the project assignment, you will identify and estimate risks for interruptions in a large drinking water supply system. In doing so, you will consider risks related to contamination of a water supply system, stability problems along the raw water source, road safety along the water source and groundwater flow issues in the supply system. Hence, the drinking water supply system is used as a case study to highlight different geo and water-related risks.

In the third week, the project groups will have finished the risk models which constitute the first part of the project work. Each group will review the models prepared by another group and provide feedback that can be used to improve the models further. You will present the updated risk models to the supervisors as a hand-in (week 4) including:

• Estimations of risk levels using risk estimation models based on fault tree and event tree analysis. Calculations of soil stability, road safety etc. will be used as model inputs.
• Short motivation of the selected risk-reduction measures and descriptions of how these alternatives can reduce risks if they are implemented.

During weeks 3 and 4 we will also start working on the probabilistic parts of risk analysis and apply risk-based decision analysis methods for evaluating alternative actions to reduce risks to the drinking water supply. Special attention will be given to cost-benefit decision analysis (CBA). You are supposed to:

• Organise the problems into a decision framework that will structure the evaluation and comparison of alternative actions.

Several tools and models are used in the project work, with a number of uncertain parameters. During weeks 4 to 6 we will discuss uncertainties and computer-based exercises are scheduled where tools for uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis will be used. The purpose is to:

• Identify the uncertain parameters and evaluate them to investigate the effect on the evaluation of the alternative actions.

During week 5 and 6, you will have time to finalize the project work and prepare a draft final report, which will be handed in in week 6 and reviewed by another group.

During weeks 6 and 7 you work with multi-criteria analysis (MCA), i.e. a method for decision analysis. A computer-based exercise is scheduled to introduce an MCA tool (WISER). You will:

• Analyse and evaluate the project assignment alternatives from a sustainability perspective using MCA. This will be made in an exercise, which will be reported individually and separate from the project work.

Two seminars are arranged (weeks 6 and 7) to discuss important concepts and methods. The seminars are based on examples and content from scientific papers.

In week 8, the final project work report will be handed in and presented. You will present your work orally to your fellow students. Another group will scrutinise your work, ask questions and give comments based on their own experience.

Note that all deadlines for hand-ins etc. are indicated in the schedule, and they are managed using Canvas.

Learning objectives

After completion of the course, you should be able to:

• Estimate risk levels using risk assessment methods in order to evaluate analysed systems.
• Evaluate and critically review risk reduction measures by using decision analysis methods in combination with risk assessments.
• Analyse and evaluate uncertainties in risk calculations and decision analysis outcomes.
• Identify and demonstrate strengths and limitations of methods for risk assessment and decision analysis.
• In written reports and oral presentations, clearly present and thoroughly evaluate and discuss the results of risk assessments and decision analyses in infrastructure and environmental engineering projects.

Project

The overall purpose of the project work is to get a practical understanding of risk assessment and decision analysis, specifically concepts for identifying, evaluating, and designing suitable actions for controlling risks and increasing safety in geo and water engineering projects. The project work includes:

• identification and estimation of risks,
• identification of alternatives for reducing risks,
• evaluation of alternatives by using decision analysis, and
• report writing and oral presentation of the results.

A separate project work description will be provided with further details.

MCA exercise

As a complement to the project work, a separate exercise based on multi-criteria (decision) analysis (MC(D)A) will be carried out. The overall purpose of the exercise is to get a practical understanding of the strengths and limitations of using MCA as a method to evaluate the sustainability of alternatives. The purpose is also to adopt different perspectives and roles in a decision-making process. The exercise includes:

• creating an MCA model per group by using the tool WISER, each group adopting a specific stakeholder perspective,
• a joint exercise where the models from all groups will be merged into one model and the results discussed, and
• writing a short reflection on the exercise to be handed in individually.

At the exercise, a detailed description of what to do will be handed out.

Literature

In the course, excerpts from books, reports and scientific papers are used. Related literature is listed in the schedule next to each lecture.

• Lindhe, A. (2010). Risk Assessment and Decision Support for Managing Drinking Water Systems, PhD Thesis No. 3119, Chalmers University of Technology, Gothenburg. http://publications.lib.chalmers.se/records/fulltext/129014.pdf (Chapter 2.2-2.6)
• Risk management – Guidelines (ISO 31000:2018, IDT)
• Aven, T. (2012). Foundations of risk analysis – A knowledge and decision-oriented perspective. Wiley, Chichester. (Chapter 5)
• Burgman M. (2005). Risks and Decisions for Conservation and Environmental Management, Cambridge University Press. (Chapter 2, 10, 12)
• IEC (1995). Dependability Management – Part 3: Application guide – Section 9: Risk analysis of technological systems, International Standard IEC 300-3-9, International Electrotechnical Commission. (Supplementary reading)
• Rosén, L. (2002). Decision analysis for managing contamination risks from petroleum transports on roads. In E. Bocanegra, D. Martínez, H. Massone (Eds.), Groundwater and Human Development, ISBN 987-544-063-9. (Supplementary reading)
• Fetter, C. W. (2012). Applied Hydrogeology (4^th ed). Pearson. (Chapter 6)
• Alén, C. (1996). Application of a probabilistic approach in slope stability analyses. In K. Sennest (Ed.) Landslides. Balkema, Rotterdam.
• Alén, C., Johansson, Å., Bengtsson, P.-E., Larsson, L., Sällfors, G., Berggren, B. (1999). Landslide risk analysis in infrastructure planning. In R. E. Melchers, M. G. Stewart (Eds.), Application of Statistics and Probability. Balkema, Rotterdam.
• Rausand M. & Høyland A. (2004). System reliability theory: models, statistical methods and applications, 2nd ed., Wiley-Interscience. (Chapter 3.1-3.9)
• Loucks, D. P., Beek, E. v., Stedinger, J. R., Dijkman, J. P. M., & Villars, M. T. (2005). Water resources systems planning and management: an introduction to methods, models and applications. UNESCO. (Chapter 9: Model Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis) (Supplementary reading)
• Dodgson J.S., Spackman M., Pearman A. & Phillips L.D. (2009). Multi-criteria analysis: a manual. Department for Communities and Local Government: London.
• Nas, Tevfik F. (2016). Cost-Benefit Analysis: Theory and Application. Lexington Books/Fortress Academic. (Chapter 7, 12)
  https://ebookcentral.proquest.com/lib/chalmers/detail.action?docID=4621113

Examples:

• Lindhe, A., Rosén, L., Norberg, T., Bergstedt, O. & Pettersson, T.J.R. (2011). Cost-effectiveness analysis of risk-reduction measures to reach water safety targets. Water Research, 45 (1), 251-253. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2010.07.048
• Norrman, J., Starzec, P., Angerud, P., & Lindgren, Å. (2006). Decision analysis for limiting leaching of metals from mine waste along a road. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 11(2), 97-114. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2005.09.004

Literature seminars:

• Bergion, V., Lindhe, A., Sokolova, E. et al. Economic Valuation for Cost–Benefit Analysis of Health Risk Reduction in Drinking Water Systems. Exposure and Health 12, 99-110 (2020).
• Aven, T. (2010). On how to define, understand and describe risk. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 95(6), 623-631.

Examination and grading

The examination will be based on a written exam and assessment of exercises and the project assignment. Grading will occur according to Chalmers rules (three graded scale) for the written exam and the project assignment. The written exam and the project assignment will be given equal weight in the final grading. The grading of the report will be done with consideration to the instructions for the report writing given in the project description and the specified criteria for the project assignment. There is no grading of the individually written reflection on the MCA exercise; it is, however, compulsory. Furthermore, it is compulsory to attend the two seminars where scientific papers are discussed.

Use of AI tools

AI tools may be used to improve the language in written hand-ins and to help summarise facts, e.g., from a scientific journal paper to help you study. AI tools may also be used to improve the layout of presentations. Any use of AI tools should be stated in any hand-in or presentation. Be aware that you are responsible for your learning process as well as the content of your hand-ins and presentations and that they comply with the given assignment.

Schedule

See detailed schedule